With the world’s population expected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050, farm production will also need to grow dramatically. Experts at the FAO and OECD say that food production will need to rise 60 percent by mid-century—and it’s crucial that the growth happens in a sustainable way.
It’s not just population growth driving the need for increased production, the FAO and OECD said in a new report released this week. Changing diets in developing countries, urban migration, and higher per capita income are all affecting the demand for food. Demand for biofuels is also rapidly increasing; bioethanol and biodiesel production may nearly double by 2021.
Because the area of farmland is projected to increase only slightly, the increase in food production will have to come from better productivity. Right now, food production is growing at around 2 percent a year. That rate is expected to slow to 1.7 percent in the coming decades, because of higher input costs, resource constraints, and growing environmental pressures including the impacts of climate change.
The biggest increase in productivity will happen Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, where there is the most potential for greater production. The FAO said that it will be critical for agriculture to become more sustainable. Currently, 25 percent of farmland is highly degraded, and water scarcity is a major issue. The report recommended that governments help encourage better farm practices and food systems, including plans for better storage, transportation, and reduced food waste.
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